The 2026 deficit target rises to 2.2%, a frozen pump price cost 57 billion francs in September, the state takes 98% of Sonara, and voter rolls go up while the election court has no president.

The state is carrying more of the economy, and it said so in writing this week. President Paul Biya's budget circular raised the 2026 deficit target from 1.7% to 2.2% of GDP, and the finance minister put September's cost of frozen pump prices at 57 billion francs. Two days later a legal notice showed the state had swapped 381.12 billion francs of claims for shares in the Sonara refinery. Private savers sent the opposite signal: they oversubscribed a bank share sale on the regional exchange. Politics runs on the same clock. Elecam published voter rolls for polls the press expects in February, yet the court that certifies results still has no president. Everything converges on Nov 10, when parliament opens the 2027 budget session, and on December, when MPs' mandate ends and the IMF board meets.

What happened. President Paul Biya's circular on the 2027 budget, signed Oct 12, revises the 2026 deficit to 2.2% of GDP from the 1.7% written into the finance law, and cuts 2026 growth to 3.5% from 4.3%. For 2027 it plans a 2.7% deficit with grants included, 3.6% growth and 3.2% inflation, with at least 30% of the budget for investment. Paragraph 66 bars new projects in 2027 "depending on the case", and 2% of 2026 domestic capital spending goes to clearing arrears. On Oct 14, Finance Minister Louis Paul Motaze told Investir au Cameroun in Bangkok that keeping pump prices frozen cost 57 billion francs in September alone, against an average of about 48 billion a month.

Why it matters. September's bill equals 18.4% of the 310 billion francs set aside for all 2026 energy subsidies, Investir au Cameroun calculates, though the two figures cover different scopes. State support per liter of diesel reached 430.30 francs in October, nearly four times July's 109.22, while the Douala pump price stays at 828. Motaze would not rule out a price rise: "I cannot swear that we will never do it." Contractors owed arrears gain from the 2% provision. Firms bidding for new public works lose. And a wider deficit means more Treasury paper at regional auctions and on a 2033 Eurobond that traded near 10.1% this month, ahead of the IMF board review in December.

On Oct 15 Elecam, the body that runs elections, published provisional voter lists in 360 communes. Corrections close Nov 10 and the national list comes out Dec 30. The revision added 252,830 new voters to a raw file of 8,238,778 at Aug 31, about 3%, per Elecam's director-general of elections Erik Essousse. Journal du Cameroun says legislative and municipal polls are planned for February 2027, but no decree has convened voters, and MPs' extended mandate ends Dec 20.

The Constitutional Council, which validates those results, has lost two members since August, including its president Clément Atangana on Oct 4. On Oct 12 the National Assembly bureau gave the Assembly president full power to name a replacement for the other, Bah Oumarou Sanda. The President of the Republic then appoints by decree and also names the Council's president. No decree had appeared on prc.cm by Oct 16, so Paul Nchoji Nkwi stays interim.

Cabral Libii, MP and president of the PCRN, said on Oct 13 that the vice-presidency created in April should be filled and warned the country could face "the most terrible explosion of its existence". Critics called his position a "constitutional coup". On the anniversary of the 2025 vote, Issa Tchiroma again claimed from exile to be the "elected president". That claim contradicts the official result, which gave Paul Biya 53.66% and Tchiroma 35.19%.

BGFI Holding said on Oct 15 that the second phase of its share offer on the BVMAC, the Central African stock exchange in Douala, was oversubscribed. That phase sought 80.558 billion francs at 80,000 francs a share. The first phase covered only 36.01% of its target, raising 45.325 billion from 7,601 investors in 24 countries, and Cameroonians bought 12.7 billion of it. EcoMatin, citing one source, puts the total at about 126.5 billion against 125.9 billion sought. The company gave no figure, so that total is unconfirmed.

For scale, the whole BVMAC was worth about 478 billion francs at the end of 2025, so this one deal is roughly a quarter of the market. The rules are loosening too. From Nov 1 Cosumaf, the regional market regulator, scraps the 20 billion franc cap on private placements and lifts the number of qualified investors allowed from 40 to 99. On Oct 9 brokerage FedhEn Capital handed the finance ministry a study proposing that firms with revenue of 50 billion francs or more float 20% of their capital within 36 months. It is only a proposal.

Brokers, listed banks and firms that need equity gain. Local units of multinationals would lose control of a fifth of their capital if the float rule passes. And the price of money is diverging: BDEAC, the regional development bank, sold its first international bond this week at 7.88% in euros, while Cameroon's own 2033 Eurobond trades near 10.1%.

A notarial notice dated Oct 14 in Limbé shows Sonara, the national refinery, raised its capital from 19.56 billion to 184.92 billion francs. The state subscribed 381.12 billion francs of new shares by offsetting claims it already held, so no new cash came in. Its stake rose from 81.95% to 98.09%. TotalEnergies Marketing Afrique fell from 4% to 0.42%, the national oil company SNH from 6.06% to 0.64%, and CSPH, the fuel price stabilization fund, from 4.22% to 0.45%.

The recapitalization was announced in June. The new shareholder table shows the cost: the refinery's liabilities now sit with the state, and minority owners fall below the 10% threshold that OHADA business law sets for asking a court to appoint an expert, Investir au Cameroun notes. It lands in the same budget that paid 57 billion francs in September alone to keep pump prices frozen.

Upstream, SNH launched a bid round for six blocks at African Energy Week in Cape Town on Oct 13: Ndian River and Bakassi in the Rio del Rey basin, Kombe-Nsepe and Bomono in Douala/Kribi-Campo, and Zina and Makary in the Logone Birni basin of the Far North. Bids close May 28, 2027, so any new oil money is years away.

Prime Minister Joseph Dion Ngute spent Oct 14 and 15 in Bamenda, where he launched a "community dialogue" that closed at the Congress Hall and inspected projects including the Mankon district hospital and the Bamenda I market. Separatists were excluded. "We cannot talk to those who question national unity," territorial administration minister Paul Atanga Nji said, as quoted by camer.be.

Five days earlier, on Oct 9, gunmen fired on the car of Bamenda's first deputy mayor, Chi David Ndoh, in Mulang. He escaped unharmed, Mimi Mefo Info reported. That account is single-sourced.

camer.be puts the conflict's toll above 6,500 dead and the displaced at 493,000 to 584,000. A dialogue without combatants can rebuild markets and roads, such as the Bamenda road crossing due on Dec 31, but it does not by itself make them safe to use. The UN Human Rights Committee reviews Cameroon in Geneva on Oct 22 and 23.

■  Pierre Emmanuel Binyam's list quit the MRC leadership race on Oct 15, calling the vote "contestable, fragile and without real legitimacy" (translated from French). That leaves interim leader Tiriane Balbine Noah as the only list at the Oct 17 convention. Willy Mengue has asked the administrative court to block it (Journal du Cameroun, Lebledparle).

■  A letter from the water and energy minister puts the police's unpaid fuel debt at 21.06 billion francs for 22,765 cubic meters, and about 50 officers have been questioned, camer.be reports. The letter itself has not been published.

■  Viettel Global has provisioned more than 200 billion francs against its Cameroon unit Nexttel and stopped consolidating it, citing a dispute with its local shareholder (Investir au Cameroun).

■  Five old BEAC coin series lose legal tender on Nov 1. Banks exchange them until Jul 31, 2027, and the BEAC until Oct 31, 2027 (Investir au Cameroun).

■  A national measles and rubella campaign runs Oct 14 to 18 for children aged 9 months to 5 years. The ministry counted 9,568 measles cases and 18 deaths in September (Journal du Cameroun).

■  Cameroon hosts more than 413,000 refugees and nearly 18,000 asylum seekers, figures cited at a UNHCR-backed police training in Yaoundé (Journal du Cameroun).

■  The Indomitable Lions play two AFCON 2027 qualifiers against Namibia in November. Dates and venues are not yet published (Cameroon Tribune).

BEAC Bank of Central African States, the central bank Cameroon shares with five CEMAC neighbors · CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon · BVMAC Central African Stock Exchange, the regional exchange based in Douala · Cosumaf Central African Financial Market Supervisory Commission, the regional market regulator · Elecam Elections Cameroon, the body that runs elections and keeps the voter rolls · Sonara National Refining Company, Cameroon's oil refinery in Limbé · SNH National Hydrocarbons Corporation, the state oil company · MINEPAT Ministry of the Economy, Planning and Regional Development

The pump price has not moved from 828 francs, so every rise in import costs lands on the budget. At 430.30 francs a liter in October, the state pays more than half of what drivers pay at the pump. Motaze's 57 billion for September came before October's higher rate.

■  World Bank. $5.01bn approved for 21 projects against $4.129bn signed, MINEPAT said in Bangkok on Oct 15. The government asked for faster no-objection reviews.

■  IsDB. The 139.2 billion franc Islamic Development Bank loan for the Douala-Bafoussam road was signed in Bangkok on Oct 13, over 20 years with five years of grace.

■  Eurobond. The $300m tap of the 2033 bond announced Oct 6 has no published pricing or settlement yet. Standard Chartered is arranging.

■  BGFI Holding. The company must choose between scaling back allocations and asking Cosumaf to enlarge the offer. No listing date is set.

In a week about prices the state cannot hold, one company picked its own. Boissons du Cameroun launched MBOA, a beer at 500 francs, on Oct 9.

A brewer can set a price and live with the volume. A government that freezes diesel at 828 francs has to find the difference somewhere, and this week it showed where: in the deficit.

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. And if East Africa is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Rwanda publishes the same day.

Kilwa Cameroon · Friday, October 16, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 2 · Week 42

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Kilwa Cameroon is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in French and English. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. We report only what identified bodies and outlets say about named people. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io