A $300 million Eurobond tap, public investment down 74.4%, protesters convicted a year after the vote, and 150 MW of power still stuck.

One year after the 2025 presidential vote, the state is paying for continuity on two fronts. On the money side, the finance ministry wants another $300 million from bond investors at a market yield near 10.1%, partly to clear arrears, while its own capital spending fell 74.4% in the first quarter and the new power utility asks markets for 260 billion francs. On the political side, a military court convicted dozens of post-election protesters, a sitting minister told critics that the Republic has no heir, and the body that certifies elections still has no confirmed president. Meanwhile private firms keep growing and borrowing cheaply, which is why Cameroon carries the region. December, when MPs' mandate ends and the IMF board meets, will test how long the state can borrow its way around both problems.

What happened. The finance ministry announced on Oct 6 that it will reopen its 8.875% Eurobond due January 2033 for $300 million, about 170 billion francs, per EcoMatin. Standard Chartered is the arranger, and Blend Finance and Horus Investment Group advise the state. The ministry says the money funds 2026 budget priorities and the clearing of payment arrears. It has not disclosed an issue price or target yield, so pricing is unconfirmed.

Why it matters. The bond traded at 95.5 to 96 cents on Oct 6, a yield of about 10.1%, per African Eurobonds data cited by EcoMatin. That is more than a point above the 8.875% coupon and almost exactly the 10.12% final yield of January's issue, per camer.be. The arrears purpose matters because the state's own spending is being squeezed. Public investment fell to 45 billion francs in the first quarter of 2026 from 175.5 billion a year earlier, down 74.4%, per the finance ministry's 2027-2029 budget framework cited by Investir au Cameroun. Suppliers who are owed money gain if the tap closes. Borrowing abroad also spares local banks, where claims on CEMAC governments already equal 90% of credit to companies and households, per BEAC data cited by Financial Afrik.

The military court in Yaoundé convicted 66 people at an Oct 8 hearing over the unrest that followed the 2025 presidential results, Journal du Cameroun reported, citing RFI. Charges included spreading false news, rebellion and unlawful assembly. Sentences ran from six months suspended to six to 15 months in prison. Lebledparle counted 67 defendants. Lawyer Maître Ndam said the defense will use every avenue of appeal, and other detainees still await trial.

The next day, labor minister Grégoire Owona answered the op-ed in which eleven figures called for a constitutional transition. In a Facebook post he wrote that the Constitution does not recognize a de facto vacancy and that the Republic has no heir, per Lebledparle. He added that the April 14, 2026 revision, which lets the head of state be assisted by a vice-president, does not designate a successor.

Meanwhile the Constitutional Council, which will certify the coming legislative and municipal results, is still run on an interim basis by Paul Nchoji Nkwi. We found no decree naming a president on prc.cm by Oct 11. MPs' extended mandate runs to Dec 20. The opposition MRC (Cameroon Renaissance Movement) picks a leader on Oct 17, though a second member has asked the sub-prefect to withdraw its authorization.

Water and energy minister Gaston Eloundou Essomba visited the second Nachtigal transmission corridor on Oct 7 and set a hard line on the delays. "We cannot go past November," he said. The 420 MW Nachtigal plant is running, but extra industrial demand of about 150 MW is waiting for the 400 kV Nyom 2-Nkolkoumou-Edéa line. The Edéa-Béon substation, 95% built, slipped from end-October to Nov 15 after a main cable arrived late, per Investir au Cameroun.

The deadline is real because the World Bank's additional financing for the works closes on Nov 30. The ministry puts the extra commercial revenue at close to 4 billion francs a month. In the same week, Socadel, the state electricity supplier, presented a 2026-2027 emergency plan of 107 billion francs and said it will seek 260 billion francs on the market, 150 billion of it to refinance debt, per Journal du Cameroun. It did not say how the plan is funded. Another large borrower would compete with the state for the same regional savings.

The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) says regional activity grew 5.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, and Cameroon supplied 3.8 points of it, the most of any member, per its September monetary policy report cited by Investir au Cameroun. The same report shows Cameroon with the lowest average effective lending rate in the bloc, 8.31%, against a regional average of 10.94%, down from 12.36% at end-March.

The contrast with story 1 is the point: growth comes from the private sector while public investment collapses. Meeting in N'Djamena, the BEAC board adopted a 2027-2030 plan to buy locally produced gold, after holdings stayed at about 6.28 tonnes in 2025. On Oct 7, ministers of the monetary union (UMAC) decided that coins from the 1958, 1959, 1971, 1976 and 1985 series lose legal tender on Nov 1, 2026. Governor Yvon Sana Bangui announced a one-year exchange window, with details still to come.

On Oct 6 in Buea, barrister Felix Nkongho presented a partial list of 4,037 reported deaths in the Anglophone conflict from 2016 to Oct 3, 2026, compiled by the Global Campaign for Peace and Justice in Cameroon with the Centre for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa (CHRDA). It counts 2,844 civilians, 689 armed separatists and 504 security personnel. Deaths peaked at 1,029 in 2018 and were 105 in 2024 and 109 in 2025, per Cameroon News Agency. The group estimates the true toll at 10,000.

A day earlier in Bamenda, territorial administration minister Paul Atanga Nji said the North-West is under control but that pockets of resistance remain. On the ground, camer.be reported on Oct 11 that trucks have been stuck in Benakuma, Menchum Valley, for more than two weeks on degraded roads, with traders' losses already in the millions of francs. That report is single-sourced. For businesses, a stable death rate is not the same as a working economy.

■  The anti-corruption commission's 2025 report puts state losses at 6,271,017,456 francs, up from 4,061,806,711, per state daily Cameroon Tribune.

■  Rebecca Enonchong opened Vox237, which publishes 2025 polling-station tallies, 6,675 of 31,595 stations so far (camer.be).

■  CEMAC ministers postponed the bloc's 2027 budget of 82.2 billion francs to an extraordinary session before the end of 2026, citing weak collection of the regional integration tax (Journal du Cameroun).

■  Minim-Martap bauxite: Canyon Resources' auditor EY flagged a material uncertainty, and AFG Bank Cameroon has frozen new drawdowns on an 82 billion franc loan. Public hearings on the Camalco alumina refinery run Oct 12-17 in Ngaoundéré and Martap (Investir au Cameroun).

■  Business in Cameroon reports 4.875 billion francs of unpaid police fuel spending and says the fuel depot company SCDP reported its emergency reserves fully depleted. Single-sourced.

■  MTN Cameroon earned about 67.9 billion francs in 2025 as its tax charge rose to 58.9 billion from 16.1 billion, per MTN Group accounts cited by Investir au Cameroun.

■  Banana exports rose 21.5% to 194,273 tonnes in January-September (Investir au Cameroun).

■  Semafor Africa's "$390 million" World Bank loan is the same €347.5 million Douala-Bangui loan we covered last week, converted to dollars, per RFI.

BEAC Bank of Central African States, the central bank Cameroon shares with five CEMAC neighbors · CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon · UMAC Central African Monetary Union, whose ministerial committee sets currency rules for the six CEMAC states · BVMAC Central African Stock Exchange, the regional bourse in Douala · CHRDA Centre for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa, a rights group based in Buea · MRC Cameroon Renaissance Movement, an opposition party · SCDP Société Camerounaise des Dépôts Pétroliers, the national fuel depot company

The state is cutting what it builds while it borrows to pay what it owes. That pattern explains why growth now depends on private companies, and why the fate of the Eurobond tap and the arrears audit matters to suppliers.

■  Eurobond. $300m tap of the 8.875% 2033 bond, arranged by Standard Chartered. Pricing unconfirmed by Oct 12.

■  Socadel. A 260 billion franc market call, 150 billion of it to refinance debt. No instrument or date announced.

■  IMF. Capmad reports talks on a new 2026-2029 program opened Sep 30. The IMF's own release of Oct 1 does not mention it. Unconfirmed. The IMF board reviews Cameroon in December.

■  CEMAC and the IMF. IMF staff missions to CEMAC countries are expected in October, with validation of the regional assurances review in December (Gabonreview).

■  BEAC. Old coin series lose legal tender on Nov 1. A 2027-2030 local gold purchase plan was adopted, with no amounts published.

Jean Manga Onguéné won six league titles and three African Champions Cups with Canon Yaoundé between 1966 and 1982, and the 1980 African Footballer of the Year award.

He missed the 1982 World Cup with a knee injury, then sat on the technical staff of the team that reached the 1990 World Cup quarter-finals. He died in Paris on Oct 6, aged 80.

That's the week. Back on Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. And if East Africa is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Rwanda publishes every Friday.

Kilwa Cameroon · Monday, October 12, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 1 · Week 42

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Kilwa Cameroon is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in French and English. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. We report only what identified bodies and outlets say about named people. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io